Probability Calibration
Are your win probability estimates accurate? Compare your estimated win rate against what actually happened.
How to read this:
If you estimate a bet has a 65% win probability, and you actually win 65% of the time on those bets โ you're
perfectly calibrated. A positive deviation means you're underestimating your edge. A
negative deviation means you're overconfident.
Brier Score: 0.00 = perfect ยท 0.25 = random ยท lower is always better.
Estimated vs Actual Win Rate (by probability bucket)
By Estimated Probability Bucket
By Odds Bucket
By Sport