Guide
What JP Edge is, how it works, and how to use every tool.
JP Edge — disciplined betting, not gambling
JP Edge is a decision-support system built around one principle: only bet when the numbers justify it. It combines live odds from SofaScore, historical team stats, Kelly-based stake sizing, and a personal journal — so every bet you place is backed by a model, logged, and reviewed. The tool will often say Pass. That is a feature, not a bug.
📐 Core Concepts
Edge
Edge = your estimated probability − the bookmaker's implied probability.
A positive edge means the market is undervaluing your side.
No edge → no bet.
Expected Value (EV)
EV = (win prob × profit per unit) − (loss prob × stake).
Positive EV bets are profitable long-term even if individual bets lose.
Kelly Criterion
Optimal stake formula:
f = (bp − q) / b where b = net odds,
p = win prob, q = loss prob.
JP Edge uses a fractional Kelly (25–50%) to reduce variance.
Implied Probability
Derived from the decimal odds:
1 / odds.
A line of 1.90 implies ~52.6% win probability. If you believe the true
probability is higher, there is a positive edge.
Over/Under Totals
The primary market focus. Uses last 10 games per team to build a normal
distribution of projected totals and compute probability of going over
each threshold line.
Dropping Odds
When odds shorten rapidly, sharp (professional) money has likely moved the
market. Dropping odds are a signal worth investigating — not a bet by
themselves.
🗓️ Recommended Daily Workflow
Scan Home Favourites (1.15 – 1.49)
Open Home Favourites. These are the highest-probability outcomes of the day. Filter by sport if needed. Note any games where the home price looks attractively short vs. the opponent's known form.
Check Dropping Odds for sharp signals
Open Odds Scout → Dropping Odds tab. A sharp drop (≥ 5%) on a home favourite confirms market consensus. Treat it as supporting evidence, not a trigger alone.
Verify form with Stats Scout
Open Stats Scout, load the same date, and click the game. Review projected total, over/under probabilities, and each team's last 10 results. Use the time filter to focus on games starting soon.
Run the Decision Tool
Click ⚡ Send to Decision Tool from Stats Scout (pre-fills sport, market, and probability). Enter the market odds, your bankroll, and submit. Read the rating carefully — only act on Good or better.
Log the bet immediately
Use Bet Journal → Add Bet to record the stake, odds, and market before the game starts. After the result, click Edit to mark win/loss — P&L is calculated automatically.
Review performance on Dashboard
Check your bankroll curve, ROI, win rate, and pass rate on the Dashboard. If your pass rate drops below 50%, you are over-betting. If ROI is negative over 30+ bets, revisit your probability estimates.
🛠️ Tools Reference
Decision Tool
Enter a sport, market, decimal odds, estimated win probability, and bankroll.
The engine returns a rating (Avoid → Exceptional), recommended stake via fractional Kelly,
expected value, and a plain-English explanation. Only bet on Good or above.
Bet Journal
Log every bet with sport, market, odds, stake, and rating. Filter by sport, outcome,
or date. After a result, click Edit — the outcome modal auto-calculates P&L
(win: stake × (odds−1), loss: −stake). The daily banner shows same-day net P&L.
Dashboard
Bankroll growth curve over time, total ROI, win rate, and how often the tool
recommended Pass. Use this weekly to spot drift in your betting discipline.
Calculator
Standalone tools: implied probability from odds, EV calculation, and Kelly stake —
useful for quickly fact-checking a number without going through the full Decision Tool flow.
Odds Scout
Two tabs: Dropping Odds — lines shortening fast (smart-money signal) —
and Favourites Scanner — filter by max odds threshold.
Both link direct to the Decision Tool.
Stats Scout
Select a game then click it to pull last 10 matches per team from SofaScore (~15s).
See projected totals, over/under probabilities for each threshold, and team form.
Send to Decision Tool pre-fills all fields automatically. Use the time filter
to focus on upcoming kick-offs.
Home Favourites
Scans all sports for home teams priced 1.15 – 1.49. Adjust the range at any time.
Sort by odds, kick-off time, or sport. Cards show home odds, away odds for context,
and a direct Analyze link. Auto-loads on open.
📜 The 7 Rules
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1No edge, no bet. If your estimated probability does not beat the implied market probability, skip it. Hard stop.
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2Price matters more than prediction. You can be right about the outcome and still lose money if the odds were too short. Evaluate value, not just likelihood.
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3Protect bankroll before maximising growth. Use fractional Kelly. A bad run with full Kelly can wipe you out before the edge pays off.
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4The most exciting bets are often the worst bets. Long shots, accumulators, and "sure things" are emotional, not mathematical. Stick to the model.
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5Specialize — basketball totals, soccer goals. Focus on markets where the stats model applies cleanly. Avoid markets you cannot model reliably.
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6The tool must often say "Pass." If every game looks like a bet, your thresholds are too loose. A high pass rate is a sign of discipline.
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7Every bet needs a reason. If you cannot explain in one sentence why the model says this bet has edge, do not place it.
💡 Tip: Start each session by restarting the API
(
python3 api/app.py in WSL), then open Home Favourites. The entire workflow
from scan to logged bet should take under 5 minutes per game. Quality over quantity.